Anomalous Pattern of El Nino and La Nina

El Niño and La Niña Anomalous Pattern

•  Current Context: Confusion exists regarding whether the climate is experiencing El Niño or La Niña conditions as of March 2025.
• Historical Impact: El Niño and La Niña events account for about 60% of the variability in monsoon years, influencing rainfall patterns in India.

Recent Developments

•  Unexpected SST Patterns: Since early 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the Pacific have shifted unexpectedly, complicating predictions.
• 2023 Monsoon: Despite a strong El Niño forecast, the 2023 monsoon was normal, indicating that other factors, like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), may also play significant roles.

Current SST Anomalies

•  Cold and Warm SST Anomalies: Cold SST anomalies have shifted westward, while warm anomalies have appeared in the far eastern Pacific, creating a mixed ENSO state.
• Wind Patterns: Anomalous wind patterns complicate the understanding of current SST conditions, with conflicting easterly and westerly anomalies.

ENSO Transition Mode (ETM)

•  Influence on Climate: The ETM may be affecting the transition from El Niño to La Niña, contributing to the current confusion in SST patterns.
• Climate Variability: A natural mode of climate variability in the southern Pacific is believed to drive these anomalies, impacting global weather patterns.

Implications for Monsoon Forecasting

• Uncertain Predictions: Forecasts for 2025 are mixed, with some predicting a La Niña while others suggest a normal year or a strong El Niño.
• Changing Relationships: The relationship between ENSO and the Indian monsoon has evolved, influenced by mid-latitude temperature anomalies and jet stream patterns.

Conclusion

• Need for Reliable Forecasts: The unpredictability of current climate patterns poses challenges for accurate monsoon forecasting, crucial for India's agricultural sector.
• Ongoing Research: Climate scientists and meteorological departments are working to improve forecasting models to better manage expectations and risks associated with monsoon variability.

Link To The Original Article – https://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/el-nino-or-la-nina-anomalous-sea-surface-temperature-patterns-confusion/article69337873.ece