India-China Relations: Balancing Dialogue and Defence

Context:

This analysis examines India’s shifting approach toward China, highlighted by PM Narendra Modi’s conciliatory remarks in a mid-March 2025 podcast, against the backdrop of a structural rivalry and the 2020 Ladakh crisis. The article argues for pairing diplomacy with robust military deterrence, offering insights into India’s strategic challenges as of March 25, 2025.

1. Shift in Tone: PM Modi’s mid-March 2025 podcast emphasized dialogue with China for a “stable, cooperative relationship,” a warmer stance than in recent years, welcomed by Chinese officials.
2. Historical Context: Relations have been recovering since the 2020 Ladakh incursions, where China crossed the LAC, leading to a fatal skirmish (20 Indian soldiers killed) and partial military disengagement.
3. Policy Uncertainty: Modi’s remarks may signal a return to earlier conciliatory policies (e.g., 2014-2019 summits with Xi Jinping) or just a tactical tone shift, with New Delhi still weighing options.
4. Structural Rivalry: India-China competition persists due to strategic differences, underscored by General Anil Chauhan’s recent Quad meeting with Australia, Japan, and the U.S.
5. Economic Priority: India’s focus on national development favors de-escalating tensions with China, its largest trading partner, to avoid military confrontations.
6. Military Lag: Defence spending has declined as a share of GDP and budget over the past decade, risking inadequate modernization despite the Ladakh wake-up call.
7. Deterrence Need: The author warns that without investing in military capabilities (e.g., submarines, fighter jets), India’s conciliatory approach could weaken its position against future Chinese aggression.
8. Long-Term Strategy: Building deterrence takes years; India must bolster military power now to ensure stability, lest conciliation becomes submission to Beijing’s advantage.

Key Terms:

• Conciliation: Efforts to improve relations through dialogue and cooperation.
• Deterrence: Military strength to prevent aggression from adversaries.
• Ladakh Crisis: 2020 border clashes with China along the Line of Actual Control.
• Line of Actual Control (LAC): Disputed boundary between India and China.
• Quad: Strategic alliance of India, U.S., Australia, and Japan countering China.
• Defence Spending: Budget allocation for military modernization and readiness.
• Structural Rivalry: Inherent competition due to strategic and geopolitical differences.

Link To The Original Article – https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/china-ties-beware-conciliation-without-deterrence/article69369634.ece