U.S. Farm Exports to India: Key Crops in Focus

Context:

This analysis examines the Trump administration’s push for greater market access in India for American agricultural produce—specifically cotton, corn, and soybean—amid tariff threats announced on March 24, 2025. The piece highlights India’s growing demand, U.S. export potential, and trade dynamics, offering insights into global economics and India’s agricultural policy as of March 24, 2025.

1. U.S. Trade Strategy: Amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from April 2, 2025, the Trump administration seeks to expand U.S. farm exports to India, focusing on cotton, corn, and soybean to offset declining shipments to China.
2. Key Crops: The U.S., a top exporter, shipped $62 billion worth of these crops globally in 2022; India’s rising demand for feed and textiles makes it a prime market.
3. Corn Demand: India’s corn consumption is projected to surge from 34.7 million tonnes (mt) in 2022-23 to 98-200 mt by 2050 with rapid income growth (6.6% annually), driven by animal product consumption (milk, eggs, meat).
4. Soybean Growth: Soybean meal use in India may rise from 6.2 mt in 2022-23 to 30.9-68.3 mt by 2050 under rapid growth, fueled by poultry and livestock feed needs.
5. Cotton Decline: India’s cotton output fell to a 16-year low of 29.9 million bales in 2024-25 from 39.8 million in 2013-14, with imports (3 million bales) now exceeding exports (1.7 million), opening doors for U.S. supplies.
6. China Factor: U.S. exports to China dropped significantly by 2024 (soybean: $12.8 billion from $17.9 billion; cotton: $1.5 billion from $2.9 billion; corn: $328 million from $5.2 billion), pushing focus toward India.
7. India’s Import Barriers: High tariffs (30-40% applied, up to 150% bound) and non-tariff barriers limit U.S. access, though recent reductions on pecans and removal of retaliatory tariffs on almonds signal openness.
8. USDA Projections: A USDA report predicts India’s need for corn and soybean imports by the 2030s, with domestic production lagging behind feed demand as incomes rise.
9. Trade Implications: U.S. cotton could revive India’s textile sector, while corn and soybean imports may address feed shortages, but India’s self-reliance policies and tariff walls pose challenges.

Key Terms:

• Reciprocal Tariffs: Matching import taxes threatened by Trump on Indian goods from April 2, 2025.
• Corn (Maize): Major U.S. crop with growing Indian demand for animal feed.
• Soybean: U.S. export crop critical for India’s poultry and livestock feed.
• Cotton: U.S. staple crop eyed for India’s textile industry amid local production decline.
• USDA Report: U.S. Department of Agriculture study forecasting India’s agricultural import needs.
• Non-Tariff Barriers: Regulatory hurdles beyond tariffs restricting trade, like biotech rules in India.
• Animal Products: Milk, eggs, meat driving India’s feed demand growth.

Link To The Original Article – https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-economics/explained-as-us-eyes-india-market-for-farm-produce-why-these-3-crops-are-key-9902241/